Ukraine’s security guarantees: What are they and why might they fall short?

Kyiv, Ukraine – In early January, leaders from more than 30 Western countries gathered in Paris, France, to sketch out a new framework of security guarantees for Ukraine that would take effect if a ceasefire with Russia were to be agreed.

The so-called “coalition of the willing” issued declarations of intent, including plans for a United States-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism and the possible deployment of multinational forces led by France and the United Kingdom, to ensure Ukraine’s defence and deter future aggression.

French President Emmanuel Macron called the guarantees “robust”, while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in the event of a deal, the UK and France “will establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine’s defensive needs”.

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